Tuesday, August 08, 2006

(ICOS) - Stock Review - Therapeutic Product Biotechnology - ICOS Corporation

ICOS Corporation has exceeded analyst estimates in each of the past three quarters by at least 88%. Five analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while three have done so for next year. Earnings estimates have been dramatically rising. Over the past 60 days, next year's numbers have almost doubled to 51 cents per share from 27 cents.

Full Analysis

ICOS Corporation (ICOS) is a biotechnology company that develops innovative therapeutic products to treat serious unmet medical conditions such as benign prostate hyperplasia, cancer and inflammatory diseases. It derives revenue largely from partnering agreements with other organizations for research, development and marketing purposes. The primary alliance partners of ICOS include Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly and Biogen-IDEC.

ICOS' first commercial product, Cialis, has gained significant market share in ED. Cialis is an oral inhibitor of the phosphodiesterase type-5 enzyme (PDE-5). Cialis is manufactured and marketed by Lilly-ICOS, LLC, the company's 50-50 joint venture with Eli Lilly and Company. Through Lilly-ICOS, the companies have joint responsibility for the promotion, sale and distribution of Cialis in North America and Europe.

Cialis market share is double that of Levitra and gaining quickly on market leader Viagra. In fact, the drug is the category leader in eleven countries around the world, including France, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., South Africa, and Venezuela. Cialis could eventually capture over 30% of the total ED market worldwide.

One of the biggest potential growth drivers for Cialis will be the allowance for once-daily dosing. Lilly-ICOS filed a supplemental marketing authorization application (MAA) in the E.U. on June 7, 2006 seeking approval for a oncedaily dose with the 2.5mg or 5.0mg tablet. Once-daily dosing could be a significant prescription driver if approved.

The company has exceeded analyst estimates in each of the past three quarters by at least 88%. Five analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while three have done so for next year. Earnings estimates have been dramatically rising. Over the past 60 days, next year's numbers have almost doubled to 51 cents per share from 27 cents.

The stock is attractively priced given its explosive growth prospects. ICOS is currently trading at 44.8x next year's estimates of 51 cents per share, well below the projected long-term growth rate of 84%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.53.

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Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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